Sport betting markets, much like financial markets, contain mixed beliefs on whether or not they are efficient. The purpose of this thesis is to test market efficiency in the National Football League point spread market. In addition, this study explores the theoretical implications of a sports wager on a bettor’s expected profit. The relationship between the efficient market winning percentage and the break-even winning percentage is constant with any given probability of a push. Data from the 2008-2009 through the 2012-2013 NFL regular seasons show that market inefficiencies exist; and as a result, promote long-term strategies where a profit is expected.
This thesis measures the effect federal regulation has on market efficiency when considering the savings and loan failures of the 1980s and the mortgage market meltdown of 2007. It is argued that lower federal regulation over these institutions results in a lower level of market efficiency. Market efficiency is measured using the number of commercial bank and savings institution failures per year from 1980 through 2008. The level of federal regulation is calculated based on the amount and magnitude of annual policy changes. These factors are represented on a time series graphical model where index numbers of federal regulation are also calculated. This model demonstrates a relationship between low levels of regulation and high numbers of bank and savings institution failures.