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  • Thumbnail for Does implied volatility forecast future volatility?
    Does implied volatility forecast future volatility? by Wade, Seira`

    Forecasting volatility in the financial market is a popular discussion today amongst market participants. Implied volatility is commonly recognized as the market’s expectation of future volatility. I examine the in-sample forecasting performance of a popular measure of implied volatility, the CBOE Implied Volatility Index (VIX), on the benchmark indicator of the U.S. Equity market, the S&P500, using data from 2003 to 2014. I find the VIX has the ability to forecast the S&P500. Given the importance of the ability to forecast volatility, the results of this study determine the value of the VIX and its relevance to the discussion of implied volatility.