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  • Thumbnail for The impact of political violence on tourism in Nepal
    The impact of political violence on tourism in Nepal by Moktan, Sidharth

    This study uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to investigate the relationship between tourism and political violence in Nepal in the presence of a structural break. Using monthly time series data from January 1991 to December 2012, we find results that suggest the existence of negative short run and long run relationships between the two variables. The results of a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model estimation suggests that our results are robust to differences in model specification. A Toda-Yamomoto Granger Causality analysis suggests that political violence Granger-causes tourism in Nepal. The stability of the long run estimates is tested using CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests.