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  • Thumbnail for The Next Big Short: an Econometric Analysis of the Subprime Auto Lending Market
    The Next Big Short: an Econometric Analysis of the Subprime Auto Lending Market by Scobie, Ian James

    With rising default rates on automobile loans, especially subprime, anxiety in the market is increasing. Eight-year auto loans are now common in the market and critics are claiming this is the next subprime bubble. This study hypothesizes that there will be a positive correlation between the delinquency rate of automobile loans and market wide factors such as, unemployment rate, gas prices, and the duration of loans. Panel data was collected from the Consumer Expenditure Survey as well and Experian in order to run econometric analysis. After analyzing the data from 2014 and 2015, the variables of interest were not statistically significant.