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  • Thumbnail for Six degrees of GM Bacon : network analysis of biotechnology inventors
    Six degrees of GM Bacon : network analysis of biotechnology inventors by Johnson, Daniel K. N.

    Network analysis shows a stable network between states, but a changing environment between individual actors, with a growing importance of connectedness. The popular maxim that everyone is connected by six degrees of separation is tested with surprising results.

  • Thumbnail for It’s a small(er) world : the role of geography in biotechnology innovation
    It’s a small(er) world : the role of geography in biotechnology innovation by Johnson, Daniel K. N.

    Using patent citation data for the U.S., we test whether knowledge spillovers in biotechnology are sensitive to distance, and whether that sensitivity has changed over time. Controlling for self-citation by inventor, assignee and examiner, cohort-based regression analysis shows that physical distance is becoming less important for spillovers with time.

  • Thumbnail for Fueling the innovative process: oil prices and induced innovation in automotive energy-efficient technology
    Fueling the innovative process: oil prices and induced innovation in automotive energy-efficient technology by Crabb, Joseph M. , Johnson, Daniel K. N.

    This paper tests the induced innovation hypothesis that higher oil prices will lead to increased innovation in energy-efficient automotive technology. We find robust empirical support for the hypothesis, while using various measures of oil and gas prices and controlling for other factors including constructed knowledge stocks and macroeconomic variables.

  • Thumbnail for Are many heads better than two? Recent changes in international technological collaboration
    Are many heads better than two? Recent changes in international technological collaboration by Johnson, Daniel K. N. , Sneed, Katherine A.

    There are two counter-intuitive trends in technological collaboration currently at work, making collaborative patent applications less common but where they exist, the collaborations involve more partners. Patent data are used to examine these trends along with the impact of two recent policy changes, including the relevance for particular nations and technologies.

  • Thumbnail for Does HAVA help the have-nots? US adoption of new election equipment, 1980-2008
    Does HAVA help the have-nots? US adoption of new election equipment, 1980-2008 by Lybecker, Kristina M. , Johnson, Daniel K. N.

    During the tabulation of votes in the 2000 presidential election, the world was shocked at the technological inadequacy of electoral equipment in many parts of the US. In reaction to public dismay over "hanging chads", Congress quickly enacted the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), legislation to fund the acquisition of advanced vote-counting technology. However, the intention was to enable, rather than mandate, choices of new electoral equipment. This paper takes advantage of a unique historical opportunity to test whether electoral equipment follows the pattern predicted by well-established models of innovation diffusion, merging electoral data with census data on socioeconomic characteristics. We infer that fiscal constraints to acquisition are strong but are not the only limitations to technology adoption, particularly within certain types of easily identifiable populations.

  • Thumbnail for The importance of being Steve : an econometric analysis of the contribution of Steve Job's patents to Apple's market valuation
    The importance of being Steve : an econometric analysis of the contribution of Steve Job's patents to Apple's market valuation by Scowcroft, Sylvie , Johnson, Daniel K. N.

    This paper evaluates the contribution of patent-related events to changes in stock prices, proposing that economics has traditionally failed to find much effect for two reasons which we identify and correct. First, patents vary widely in quality so we use quantile analysis and alternative measures of patent quality to identify effects. Second, we permit the possibility that information leaks out into investor sentiment during the long and uncertain time until patent grant, so evaluate the stock price effect at four different dates in the life of each patent. As a case study to test this approach, track all patents over a 27-year period for Apple Inc., permitting design patents to have different effects that traditional utility-model patents, and isolate the effect that Steve Jobs’s name on a patent has at each stage of a patent’s life.

  • Thumbnail for Viral economics : an epidemiological model of knowledge diffusion in economics
    Viral economics : an epidemiological model of knowledge diffusion in economics by Johnson, Daniel K. N. , Gurley, Nicole

    We model the diffusion of economic knowledge using an epidemiological model of susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered populations (SEIR). Treating bibliographic citations as evidence of contagion, we estimate the coefficients of a four-equation system simultaneously for each of 759 subfields of economics. Results show that some subfields grow endogenously much faster than others, and just over half have basic reproduction properties sufficient to ensure survival without the annual addition of new protégé scholars.

  • Thumbnail for The anatomy of a likely donor : econometric evidence on philanthropy to higher education
    The anatomy of a likely donor : econometric evidence on philanthropy to higher education by Johnson, Daniel K. N. , Lara, Christen

    In 2006, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $28 billion, with the top school receiving just under a billion dollars. Roughly fifteen percent of those funds came from alumni donations. This paper builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model predicting the ever-more important pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data from over 22,000 alumni at a private liberal arts college, and report on the probable profiles for annual fund donors and alumni willing and able to give major gifts.

  • Thumbnail for An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure? Short-and long-run effects of pharmaceutical patents on U.S. health care expenditures
    An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure? Short-and long-run effects of pharmaceutical patents on U.S. health care expenditures by Johnson, Daniel K. N. , Johnson, Hilary S.

    This study examines the relationship between pharmaceutical R&D and health care expenditures, distinguishing between the short- and long-run impacts. To measure these relationships quantitatively, we focus on patents as a key factor driving the costs of pharmaceuticals, and develop a structured vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to measure the social rate of return to pharmaceutical research as protected by patents. We conclude with unambiguous results that pharmaceutical patents are not correlated with higher short-run prices in any measure of medical costs. They are associated with higher long-run prices in pharmaceuticals themselves, but with lower long-run prices in the aggregate medical sector which includes pharmaceuticals as a component part. Further, the TRIPS Agreement and Hatch-Waxman Act to enable generic competition have both been demonstrably effective at lowering prices across the spectrum of medical sector prices. We conclude that pharmaceutical patents may be economically medicinal themselves, acting as the 'ounce of prevention' that saves a 'pound of cure', the cure which would come in the form of even higher costs elsewhere in the medical sector.

  • Thumbnail for Does principal pay matter? an analysis of principal compensation and school performance in Colorado K-12 public schools
    Does principal pay matter? an analysis of principal compensation and school performance in Colorado K-12 public schools by Johnson, Daniel K. N. , Carlson, David K.

    Compensation of K-12 school principals, and the effect that it has on the performance of the schools they lead, has become a relevant policy debate in recent years. This study examines the relationship between principal salaries and student performance on Colorado Student Assessment Program (CSAP) tests by using multivariate quintile regressions on data from the 2002-2005 school years. Controlling for differences in cost of living across districts, a positive correlation between principal salaries and student CSAP scores was found, particularly in the mathematics section of the test. However, the percentage of a school’s students on free and reduced lunch and teacher salaries were found to have a larger impact on student performance.