The aim of this study is to examine National Hockey League (NHL) player production during contract years. The term contract year refers to the last year of a player's contract. The hypothesis is that players perform better during their contract year in hopes of receiving a higher salary on their next contract (through free agency). The other hypothesis is that players will perform worse in the first year of their new contract because there is a decrease in incentive. In studying player production, this thesis uses nine independent variables believed to explain the dependent variable points per game. Data was collected for every forward during the 2007-2008 NHL season. All in all, data for 416 players was gathered. Regression analysis was performed for these 416 players. Of the four models tested, five independent variables were found to be significant. Both salary and nationality-Europe were found to have a positive impact on points per game. Year in league, first year, and age were all found to negatively affect points per game. The independent variable last year, which is the variable that this thesis concerns, was found to be statistically insignificant.
