This thesis proves that the yield spread, between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill (“my spread”) is able to explain roughly 5% of the variation in real, quarterly GDP growth rates, four-quarters in the future. It also demonstrates that a yield spread of this maturity-combination is marginally more predictive than the other, commonly used spread, between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the 1-year Treasury Bond.
"The Colorado College Investment Club was established in December of 2003 and was entrusted with the management of the Investment Club’s own portfolio. This portfolio was funded through the generosity of private investors...The Investment Club is a student run organization that educates members about the financial markets, investing, and portfolio management."--p. 3