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  • Thumbnail for AN EVALUATION OF PRICE RELATIONSHIPS FOR SUBSTITUTE GOODS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON ACCURATE PRICE FORECASTING FOR THE EMERGING BISON MEAT INDUSTRY
    AN EVALUATION OF PRICE RELATIONSHIPS FOR SUBSTITUTE GOODS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON ACCURATE PRICE FORECASTING FOR THE EMERGING BISON MEAT INDUSTRY by Bemis, Charles Albert

    The emerging market for North American Bison has recently shown steady growth in both demand and production that has led to strong pricing for bison meat products. Despite the wide interest in forecasting bison prices and the potential for industry-wide benefits of accurate forecasts, limited work dealing with bison price forecasting has been published. An econometric model used by I. J. Bourke (1979) for beef price forecasting was adapted for the bison industry expressing monthly bison carcass prices as a function of national unemployment rates, personal disposable income, and the prices of beef, pork, lamb, turkey, and broiler meats. Separate models were built for bull and heifer carcasses to test for price discrepancies based on gender. Finally, months were included in the original model to account for the cyclical nature of agricultural industries. This paper aims to establish a basis of price relationships between bison carcasses, common substitutes, and macroeconomic indicators for potential use in an accurate price-forecasting model.