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The effect of overconfidence on sequential decision making : an experimental investigation of the classical secretary problem

by Hoffman, Kate

Abstract

This experimental economics thesis uses the Classical Secretary Problem (CSP) to simulate a sequential observation and selection problem in the context of employer hiring decisions. The CSP is paired with an overconfidence test to examine whether there is a relationship between a subject’s level of overconfidence and his or her success in making optimal hiring decisions. No significant differences were found between subjects with varying overconfidence levels, but significant deviation was found between subjects’ behaviors and the selections dictated by the optimal policy. Significant learning among all subjects was also discovered between the first and second half of the CSP, indicating a tendency among subjects to revise strategies and correct mistakes.

Note

Title self-submitted as: The effect of overconfidence on individual decision making : an experimental investigation of the classical secretary problem

Includes bibliographical references.

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Administrative Notes

Title self-submitted as: The effect of overconfidence on individual decision making : an experimental investigation of the classical secretary problem

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Copyright
Copyright restrictions apply.
Publisher
Colorado College
PID
coccc:9495
Digital Origin
born digital
Extent
37 pages : illustrations (some color)
Thesis
Senior Thesis -- Colorado College
Thesis Advisor
Parco, Jim
Department/Program
Economics and Business
Degree Name
bachelor
Degree Type
B.A.
Degree Grantor
Colorado College
Date Issued
2014-05