Colorado College Logo

  DigitalCC

Use AND (in capitals) to search multiple keywords.
Example: harmonica AND cobos

The Variable Effects of Exposure and Experience on Future Exponential Growth Bias

by Holland, Benjamin

Abstract

Exponential growth bias (EGB) is a largely unnoticed bias that plagues the financial decision making of most individuals in the United States. It is characterized as the tendency to linearize exponential compound saving and interest rates, and it shows itself through poor decision making around wrong estimates and/or no understanding of how money grows through time. Based on the theory that education and valid experience might tame EGB, a model was built to measure variable drivers of individual EGB related to exposure. Based on previous theory that more extreme situations demand more incentive for participation, it was hypothesized that the government dictated interest rates at times of individual’s first home purchases could subconsciously influence EGB, for two main reasons. First, a more expensive payment plan carries greater incentive to fully understand, and second, a first home purchase is a fundamentally monumental financial decision with potential to positively or negatively shape bias. A variable for interest rate at the time of a first home purchase was created a combined with more lifetime-housing-exposure variables theorized to influence EGB, to model overall effects of individual housing exposure on EGB. The results showed that government set interest rates hold no statistically significant influence on an individual’s current EGB, however, the marginal coefficients showed the correlations consistent with the theory. The model statistically significantly determined that the variables for number of homes purchased in a lifetime and price paid for a first home are inversely correlated with current EGB. In addition, income and education levels were statistically proven to be inversely correlated with current EGB.

Note

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Includes bibliographical references.

Administrative Notes

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Copyright
Copyright restrictions apply.
Publisher
Colorado College Tutt Library
PID
coccc:27416
Digital Origin
born digital
Extent
34 pages : illustrations
Thesis
Senior Thesis -- Colorado College
Thesis Advisor
Christina Rader
Department/Program
Economics and Business
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Degree Type
bachelor
Degree Grantor
Colorado College Tutt Library
Date Issued
2017-05