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AN EVALUATION OF PRICE RELATIONSHIPS FOR SUBSTITUTE GOODS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON ACCURATE PRICE FORECASTING FOR THE EMERGING BISON MEAT INDUSTRY

by Bemis, Charles Albert

Abstract

The emerging market for North American Bison has recently shown steady growth in both demand and production that has led to strong pricing for bison meat products. Despite the wide interest in forecasting bison prices and the potential for industry-wide benefits of accurate forecasts, limited work dealing with bison price forecasting has been published. An econometric model used by I. J. Bourke (1979) for beef price forecasting was adapted for the bison industry expressing monthly bison carcass prices as a function of national unemployment rates, personal disposable income, and the prices of beef, pork, lamb, turkey, and broiler meats. Separate models were built for bull and heifer carcasses to test for price discrepancies based on gender. Finally, months were included in the original model to account for the cyclical nature of agricultural industries. This paper aims to establish a basis of price relationships between bison carcasses, common substitutes, and macroeconomic indicators for potential use in an accurate price-forecasting model.

Note

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Includes bibliographical references.

Administrative Notes

The author has given permission for this work to be deposited in the Digital Archive of Colorado College.

Colorado College Honor Code upheld.

Copyright
Copyright restrictions apply.
Publisher
Colorado College
PID
coccc:11151
Digital Origin
born digital
Extent
24 pages : illustrations
Thesis
Senior Thesis -- Colorado College
Thesis Advisor
Smith, Mark
Department/Program
Department of Economics and Business
Degree Name
Bachelor of Arts
Degree Type
bachelor
Degree Grantor
Colorado College
Date Issued
2015-05